To illustrate this point, here is a brief analysis of vintages from the last decade or so, which clearly demonstrates how difficult it can be to get it right:
 

1991	Rather ordinary wines which were severely effected by frost. Early drinking. No investment potential.
1992	Even more ordinary in our opinion. No investment potential.
1993	Some quite decent wines made, but none with investment potential.
1994	Some good wines made, but not good enough for investment.
1995	Excellent year. Some great wines made in most regions. Prices increased very soon after coming on the market.
1996	Great year for Médocs and Cabernet dominated wines, less reliable in Saint Emilion and Pomerol. Prices increased immediately after the “en primeur” campaign.
1997	Some very attractive early drinking wines made, but none with investment potential. Prices have fallen dramatically since being offered at excessively high prices “en primeur”.
1998	An excellent year in Saint Emilion, less reliable in the Médoc due to overly hard tannins – careful selection needed. (We only recommend three wines for investment.)
1999	Generally speaking a sound vintage with some attractive wines produced throughout the region. Not really having a good enough reputation to be considered as an “investment vintage”, but we have put forward just four recommendations which are all great wines at sensible prices.
2000	A truly great vintage and investors who were able to buy the top wines at genuine opening prices have already seen some handsome increases in the value of their stock. However, prices have now reached such levels that they may well plateau out for a few years and investors may have to wait a little before further financial gains are made. Eventually, values are without doubt destined for the upper atmosphere.
2001	Another good all-round vintage but without any real stars being produced. (It is also usually quite difficult for any vintage to follow directly after a truly great year.)
2002	Yet again, a perfectly sound vintage where we can certainly recommend wines for future consumption, however, our tastings in the Spring failed to show up any wines that offered great potential for investment. We will review the situation once the wines are in bottle.
2003	For some Chateaux this has not been an easy vintage. The very long and hot summer meant that sugar levels were high and acidity levels low and this can result in a lack of the required balance that is usually present in really great long-lived wines. However, some top producers are making very encouraging comments, so we shall have to wait and see.

As serious advisors on wine investment, it goes without saying that we ensure speculation is kept to a minimum, even if it may sometimes mean missing out on the “quick buck” opportunities that occur from time to time in young vintages. (We have a clear memory of vintages such as 1972 and 1984 where prices halved within a few years of being released!) Therefore, our absolute preference is to taste wines some time after bottling, when one can obtain a much more positive idea of their quality – character, structure, balance, complexity and estimated longevity, some of the ingredients required that together, help to ensure the creation of potentially great wines.